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The Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its first decision-making meeting of the year this Wednesday (31st). The market expects, based on the continued slowdown in inflation, that the Fed will likely stand pat this week and announce that interest rates will remain unchanged 🆗. According to comprehensive foreign media reports, inflation is clearly slowing down quickly to close to the 2% target. Although indicators show a healthy economy, regional Fed surveys have shown signs of weakness. Therefore, officials anticipate that the current policy will remain unchanged this week 🕵🏻‍♂️💬, and they will explain the criteria for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide more detailed guidance at a post-meeting press conference on the conditions for a rate cut in March 🔍📄, including potential adjustments to the Consumer Price Index (CPI, commonly known as the inflation rate), and discuss the conditions for starting to slow down the reduction of the balance sheet. The Bloomberg team expects the Fed to start cutting rates in March. The recent acceleration in the decline of inflation gives the Fed more room to support maximum employment; since regional surveys show that the economy is deteriorating faster than hard data, officials may be less confident in achieving a soft landing than the market expects 📊📉.

If the CPI data released on February 9th are not unexpected, officials will be willing to cut rates early as an “insurance” against an economic downturn. The market is most concerned about the possibility of a rate cut in March, and what kind of signal Powell will send 🆙📶. Observers believe that Powell may be open to a rate cut in March, but since there is still some time before the March meeting, and several employment and inflation data will be released in the meantime, officials will not make a decision now. ✊🏻🧑🏻‍💻

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